Bad news for SNAP recipients: The program could disappear in several states if this Republican bill passes

On Capitol Hill, Senate Republicans are negotiating with the White House and GOP leaders in the House of Representatives to pass a spending bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, that incorporates many of President Trump’s campaign promises.

Many of these promises center on tax reductions, with the Tax Policy Center finding that those with higher incomes would see greater savings in their tax bills. By cutting taxes without sufficiently reducing spending, the bill is expected to increase both the deficit (the gap between government revenue and annual spending) and the national debt.

House Republicans did make spending cuts to Medicaid and SNAP to help offset the tax cuts, but increased spending on the military and immigration enforcement still leaves a funding gap.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (LA-R) has rejected the characterization of changes to Medicaid and SNAP as cuts, instead casting them as efforts to reduce waste, fraud, and abuse. However, critics and independent analysts evaluating the bill’s financial impact disagree, warning that up to 14 million people could lose access to Medicaid due to new bureaucratic hurdles the bill would impose.

How is SNAP currently funded?

According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), the outlook for SNAP is equally concerning. More than 40 million Americans rely on SNAP, with the majority of benefits going to families with children and older adults. The Congressional Budget Office’s evaluation of the legislation found that it could strip 4.2 million people, including 1 million children.

The proposed cuts would shift more financial responsibility to states, requiring them to fund a greater share of the program from their budgets. Federal spending would be reduced by 30 percent, reported the CBPP. Currently, SNAP is administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS), with the federal government covering the cost of benefits and sharing administrative expenses with the states.

Greater fiscal responsibility for states

Under the House bill, states would be required to begin contributing to the cost of benefits. States with a SNAP error rate below 6 percent would pay 5 percent of benefit costs—a seemingly small figure that could still represent a significant burden for states with millions of enrollees. There are fewer than ten states that had an error rate below 6 percent in 2023, according to data from the USDA.

States with higher error rates—many of which are Republican-led—would be required to contribute more, up to 25 percent of benefit costs, the maximum outlined in the legislation.

The Center for American Progress warns that this cost-sharing model could place even greater strain on state budgets during a recession. In an economic downturn, rising unemployment reduces state tax revenues while increasing the number of households eligible for SNAP. As negotiations continue, Republicans may be forced to back down as the war between Iran and Israel could upend global energy markets, leading to higher prices for households on basic commodities, including food in the US.

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